US - absence rates and lost worktime data

Part 3 - Analysis of Lost Worktime rates

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Update Date: February - 2024

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Data:

Country: USA

Period: Yearly data from 2002 onwards.

Data Source (BLS): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Link to the latest data release: HOUSEHOLD DATA ANNUAL AVERAGES. Table 46: Absences from work of employed full-time wage and salary workers by age, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity.

Absences are defined as instances when persons who usually work 35 or more hours a week worked less than 35 hours during the reference week for one of the following reasons: Own illness, injury, or medical problems; child-care problems; other family or personal obligations; civic or military duty; and maternity or paternity leave. Excluded are situations in which work was missed due to vacation or personal days, holiday, labour dispute, and other reasons. For multiple jobholders, absence data refer only to work missed at their main jobs. The absence rate is the ratio of workers with absences to total full-time wage and salary employment.

Lost Worktime is defined as hours absent as a percentage of hours usually worked.

Overview of the BLS lost worktime rates analysis

This part provides a detailed examination of the changes in lost worktime rates that occurred from 2020 onwards. In particular, we analyse the deviation in lost worktime rates from the 2002-2019 pre-pandemic trend, both in absolute and relative terms. We perform the analysis full time workers aged 16 and over. We perform the analysis for Men, Women and the Total number of workers (Total = Men + Women).

We first analyse the longer-term trends in lost worktime rates from 2002 to 2019 (the pre-pandemic period) so that we can establish a baseline for what can be considered "normal" or "expected" in variations and the historical trend in lost worktime rates. We then detrend the changes in lost worktime rates and analyse the remaining residuals, which are deviations from trend. For 2020 onwards, we use the forward projection of the 2002-2019 trend in lost worktime rates.

The second part of the analysis consists in measuring the changes in lost worktime rates relative to the baseline 2019 lost worktime rate (pre-pandemic). We measure the changes in lost worktime rates in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 relative to the 2019 baseline. This provides a less sophisticated but easier to understand measurement of the changes in lost worktime rates since 2020.

Lost Worktime Rates from illness and injury, 16 and older, (Deviation from 2002-2019 trend)

In this section we analyse changes in lost worktime rates (from illness and injury) relative to its linear trend spanning from 2002 to 2019 (the pre-pandemic period). To normalise the changes in lost worktime rates from 2020 onwards relative to the baseline trend, we use as a volatility metric, the standard deviation of the deviations from trend (residuals) for the period 2002 to 2019.

Lost Worktime Rates from illness and injury and 2002-2019 trend, 16 and older

Lost Worktime Rates from illness and injury, 16 and older, absolute deviation from trend

Lost Worktime Rates, 16 and older, % and normalised (Z-Score) deviation from trend

Lost Worktime Rates from illness and Injury, 16 and older, % change from the 2019 value

This section analyses the changes in the lost worktime rates from illness and injury from its 2019 value. We compute the changes (in percentage) in lost worktime rates for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, relative to 2019. This method of computing changes in lost worktime rates has an advantage of being simpler to unserstand and interpret than the deviation from the 2002-2019 trend that was discussed in the previous section. As lost worktime rates has an almost monothonically declining trend from 2002 to 2019, taking 2019 as a reference level will likely underestimate the actual increases in lost worktime rates that we observed in the previous section.

Total (Men + Women) Lost Worktime Rates in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, % change from the 2019 value.

Conclusions

• Lost worktime rates from illness and injury for men and woman have increased substantially since 2019.
• The largest rise in lost worktime rates was in 2022, at 66.7% higher than the 2019 rate, which occurred after the main impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• In 2023, lost worktime rates from injury and illness dropped substantially, albeit still being 22.2% above 2019 levels.
• In absolute terms, for individuals aged 16 and over, lost worktime rates from illness and injury rose from about 0.9% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2022. In 2023 they stood at 1.1%.
• Taken in conjunction with the increase in disability rates since early 2021, which we’ve shown here and here, we believe that the most likely cause for the rise in lost worktime was the impact of the mass Covid-19 vaccinations.
• More work is needed in order to understand if the rise in absence and lost worktime rates are due to higher levels of illness and injury in the overall population of full time workers, or if the increase in absence affects predominantly those workers with disabilities, whose numbers have risen since early 2021.